Likes Are Lying to You (And It's Costing You Subscribers)

What Most Creators Won’t Admit (But Should)

At first, I thought likes meant growth.

But then a viral post with 17,000 likes underperformed one with a fraction of the likes.

That’s when it clicked:

Virality doesn’t equal value.

Sometimes a post that builds your business isn’t the one that goes viral.

Here’s what I’ve learned after hundreds of posts, thousands of likes, and a lot of quiet reflection:

Likes are lying to you.

And if you’re not careful, they’ll have you measuring the wrong thing and missing the signals that actually lead to subscribers, clients, and sales.

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The Lie We’ve Been Sold

We’ve been trained to chase numbers.

More likes. More comments. More shares.

We treat engagement like validation. We call it “gaining traction.” And we relentlessly chase it for the sake of progress and proof we’re doing something right.

But the truth?

Viral posts don’t always build businesses.

They don’t always translate to subscribers (or the right ones), sales, or long-term trust.

They just look really good in screenshots.

And get us opening our wallets to the people claiming they can help us achieve it.

But writing for the algorithm is performative. It can lead to shallow growth. And shallow growth may not last.

When the dopamine high wears off we’re left with a quiet revelation.

Our goal should have been to resonate with our audience not just the algorithm this entire time. Because that’s where the the real growth lies waiting.

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What The Data Really Says

I’ve seen it across my own posts repeatedly.

Data that contradicts the chase for vanity metrics and viral post templates.

My most viral Note received 17,000 likes and 569 subscribers.

While, another Note, which received 1/10th the engagement, generated more new subscribers for my publication…

This Note has generated 1,400+ likes and 799+ subscribers.

How does a post with 8% of the likes generate 40% more subscribers?

The Note with 17,000 likes feels emotionally resonant but broad and reflective. It’s relatable, but low intent. Great for engagement, not as good for conversions.

The Note with 1,400 likes is specific, outcome-driven, and clearly tied to a transformation. Lower likes, higher intent, more conversions.

Now, here’s the thing.

I classify both of these Notes as viral. But I don’t want anyone reading this to think it only applies to “Viral” posts or dismiss this because they haven’t gone viral. Allow me to show you some additional examples.

This Note received 94 likes but generated 0 new subscribers.

And this Note generated 203 likes and only 1 new subscriber.

Then take a look at this one…

164 likes but 29 new subscribers. And if you notice that it is similar to the 1,400 like Note above you’d be correct… Iterate on winning concepts.

I have one more demonstration to show you to really try and hit this home.

This Note, on the surface, looks like a failure.

It only received 4 likes, 1 comment, and no one shared it.

Here’s what these numbers don’t tell you…

At the end of this long note there is a call to action. This call to action led to multiple people send me private messages and translated into $1,000 in revenue for my business.

The point isn’t that “likes don’t matter at all,” it’s that they don’t measure buying intent, trust, or alignment. And chasing likes can mislead you into thinking you’re growing when you’re not.

The data doesn’t lie, even if the likes do.

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The Real Cost Of Chasing Likes

When you chase likes, you stop writing for people.

You start writing for approval.

What began as a form of expression and service turns into a performance. You begin posting what you think the algorithm will spread into people’s feeds. Not what you really want to say. Not what people really need to hear.

You get some cheap dopamine.

Some likes and reposts and a viral hit if you’re lucky.

Here’s what that could be costing you:

• Your clarity because you’re creating for algorithms not your ideal client.

• Your voice because you’re mimicking what gets likes instead of taking a stand for what you believe in.

• Your alignment because your audience may grow but with people you may never serve, connect with, or actually help.

• Your future engagement because you’ve grown people that may lack interest in what you post about leading them to become disengaged in future content.

• Your bottom line because broad misaligned audiences aren’t following you for the value and services you provide.

Building the wrong audience doesn’t grow your business.

And it puts you on the fast track to burnout.

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Here’s What To Track Instead

I still look at likes.

They are a signal, they tell me something.

But they don’t tell me everything, so I must look deeper.

When I first started writing, they were my compass. With every post I wrote, I wanted to beat the likes I got on my last one. It wasn’t until I furthered my understanding and looked deeper that I looked beyond Likes.

I realized likes were just one data point.

Not all content is created equally.

The content that builds a business doesn’t always look like the content that goes viral.

People aren’t opening their wallets for viral cat videos.

Here’s what I pay closer attention to now:

1. Post Intentionality.

Intentional content is designed.

It’s constructed with specific goals. To get in front of more people, to establish authority and credibility, or to generate sales, to name a few. This becomes a filter to evaluate reach and engagement.

My Note that received 4 likes was not designed for growth. It was designed to generate sales.

2. Subscribers, Not Likes.

Viral posts feel great in the moment.

But I can’t run my business on dopamine highs. Did the post generate likes or did it grow my publication? As you can see from the examples above, sometimes few likes can bring more subscribers.

3. Restacks + Replies, Not Reach.

Restacks > Replies > Likes.

There’s a hierarchy to quality engagement.

Restacks are a message work sharing to their audience. And the most beneficial to our growth. Replies mean someone felt seen and/or spurred a reaction. Likes are better than nothing but they don’t tell us as much.

Beyond just “engagement”, the type of engagement tells us more. What people write in our comments, tells us a lot as I will expand on in #4.

4. Direct Messages + Qualitative Feedback.

Not everything can be measured.

A DM that says “I’ve been following you and love your work” is proof of resonance.

Growth doesn’t always show up on a dashboard. There is no Substack Stat that I can show demonstrating the DMs I received from my Note with 4 likes. Or the DMs, emails, and website contact form submissions I get asking to work with me.

Understanding the content that resonates is the strongest signal. And the questions I receive fuel my future content (and products) to provide solutions to problems people are actively looking to solve.

This qualitative feedback is what businesses thrive on.

5. Sales.

Substack can track new paid subscribers.

This is a valuable statistic and shows a high degree of resonance with the type of content that led to it. But this is not as easy to track for those of us selling digital products or monetizing in other ways.

Sometimes it’s observational, I posted a CTA in a Note and got 2 sales. Or, UTM parameters tracking the source back to Substack or email.

Sales are the strongest signal.

6. Energy Return.

For me, it’s bigger than business.

My goal is not only to make money today. It’s to still be here in 1, 2, 5 years and still love what I am doing.

So I also evaluate if I like what I am writing about. Do I feel proud of the content I am producing? Or does it feel forced, performative, and like I am just writing for the algorithm?

I often share things I know will receive fewer likes. This is a compromise I am willing to make because I understand the bigger game I am playing.

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Not Every Piece Of Content Serves The Same Purpose.

To expand on #1 above.

Different content can serve a different purpose. Understanding this, it shouldn’t all be measured the same way.

The post that got 4 likes brought in 2 clients.
The one with 17,000 likes? Brought reach.

Both had a role.

If I only wrote direct CTAs, I wouldn’t grow.

If I only chased likes, I wouldn’t convert.

Content is designed. This is a strategy.

Some content builds trust and authority. Some content builds attention and reaches new audiences. Some are designed specifically to sell.

Trying to compare them is like judging a hammer for not cutting wood.

Each piece has its place and its own metric of success.

Taking this one step further,

Not all businesses are created the same, either.

I evaluate metrics based on using writing to build my business. However, businesses that monetize differently should be measured differently as well.

A YouTuber making money off ad revenue, their sole intent may be views (and watch time). When we’re selling products and services, our intention is different. We don’t just need people we need the right people.

Use this as a filter for your unique business.

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Playing Your Own Game

At the end of the day, likes are fun to chase and easy to misinterpret.

But if you’re serious about using your writing to build something, an audience, a business, a body of work that matters… You have to think deeper.

You have to measure what actually moves the needle.

That means redefining success. It means asking not “How many people liked this?” but “Did the right people take the next step?”

Because it’s not about performance, it’s about alignment. It’s about resonance. It’s about building something sustainable and meaningful, not just momentary validation.

Let others chase the algorithm.

You? You’re playing a longer game.

One built on trust. On depth. On staying power.

So show up, write what matters, and track what matters.

And remember: likes might lie, but real results don’t.

Hope this helps.

Landon

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P.S. If you found this helpful, would you do me a quick favor and restack it? Sharing spreads the message and motivates me to keep writing practical content to help you thrive in your online business.

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